Apperceptive Mess 14: German Tribes and a Volcano-Triggered Pandemic
Hello friends!
I'm writing to you from Coronado, California, where I have been for the last two weeks. Arizona was starting heat up uncomfortably with daily temperatures hovering between the 40C - 43C (104F - 109F), so it is nice to be at a place where runs and walks are now possible at sane times of day again.
As you probably have noticed, I have not kept up with this newsletter over the last seven weeks as I had intended to. Between the ICE mandate scare and a hectic summer class schedule, it has been stressful. However, I remain committed to finding a way to make a weekly newsletter work again with my schedule. Perhaps that means publishing publicly the papers I write for school?
With a month left to spare in the summer break, I'm firing on all cylinders to build a tiny Ethereum game called Wuku. On top of that, I am making a little speed dial app for my grandparents, who prefer to pictorially interact with their phones as opposed to relying on reading.
Thought of the Week: German Tribes as Startups
In 9AD Rome, when Augustus was still emperor, a general by the name of Publius Quinctilius Varus was put in charge of Germani. The territory was pacified, but not conquered, and the general was sent to curry favors and enlarge the presence of the Roman military in Germany.
The Romans were strong practitioners of the virtues of honor. An example of this is that they always preferred to fight out in the open. Insidias, the Roman word for treason, was also often used synonymously with "ambush."
To the Romans, an ambush is an abnormal form of warfare, just as treason is an irregular form of politics. The virtue became something the Germans will someday exploit. Conspiring, laying traps, and catching Varus by surprise in unknown territory became their strategy. The series of events eventually led to the famous Battle of the Teutoburg Forest, where the German tribes were able to exploit traditional Roman methods of warfare.
In the forest, Varus underestimated the density of the vegetation and depth of his enemy. He made predictable Roman moves like building a fortified encampment during the battle and failed to mobilize his troops in time to push back against incoming German reinforcements. The alliance of six German tribes became successful in taking out three Roman legions (12000 - 18000 men) and drove the Romans far and away from taking any future attempt at the German territories ever again.
It changed the course of Roman history, and also has a lot to teach us. There was nothing inherently wrong with the Roman virtue of honor. However, in the face of a more flexible enemy in unfamiliar territory, our most prominent traits produce our weakest links.
Learning about this story was fascinating because it was another example of the oscillating relationship between incumbents and upstarts. An incumbent leaves space for a new entrant when it fails to perceive changing environments due to their entrenched beliefs. To defeat an incumbent, said new entrant does not even need to be as organized. A bar of synchronicity is required, but as long as they know the lay of the land, study the incumbent's playbook, a great deal of damage can be inflicted.
Find of The Week: Supervolcanoes and Pandemics
When I was in secondary school, my favorite part of Geography was reading about Supervolcanoes. Volcanoes have mystified humans for ages, and in many places of the world, the geographical feature is a theistic symbol. The names Krakatoa and Vesuvius may be familiar to most, but there was a little known volcanic eruption in 539AD that led to more than just earthquakes and tsunamis.
Now a crater lake, Ilopango erupted and sent volcanic ash 50 kilometers into the atmosphere. Because of its geographical placement on the equator, atmospheric circulation took the ashes to the north and south poles, enveloping the Earth from all sunlight. The volcanic winter lasted a total of eighteen months. Like most violent volcanic eruptions, it led to global cooling and is theorized to be one of two successive volcanic eruptions that drove the world into the Dark Ages. Not only did it trigger crop failure and widespread famine, but it also created the onset of one of the most significant pandemics in history: the Plague of Justinian.
It is honestly fascinating how much of this could not have been predicted the same way we probably can now. I called the COVID-19 pandemic a "black swan" in the past, but have since revised my view after my dear friend Cedric kindly corrected me.
My friend Artur also tweeted a list of possible names for this type of "probable by uncomfortable to avoid" events:
I like Cassandreic, what about you?
That is all we have for the week! I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I did writing it. If you have any questions, suggestions, complaints, or feedback, please feel free to reach out by replying directly to this email!
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